The Political Truman Show
The view of a reluctant anarchist
And those who were seen dancing were thought to be insane by those who could not hear the music, Nietzsche.
I started writing HyperNormalTimes because I felt that the world we were told about was not, in fact, the reality. As in the years prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union, people knew that nothing was real, yet everyone involved in the production of the charade had too much invested in the lies to do anything about it.
As Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn put it,
We know that they are lying, they know that they are lying, they even know that we know they are lying, we also know that they know we know they are lying too, of course, they know that we certainly know they know we know they are lying too as well, but they are still lying. In our country, the lie has become not just a moral category, but the pillar industry of this country.
Similarly, I suspected that our politicians were not addressing the important issues, policymakers were manipulating our money and markets, and we were being told lies to keep us feeling secure and pacified. But I also chose the title to generate interest. I was exaggerating for effect—or so I thought.
Sometimes, such thoughts place you among unusual people with unusual ideas and beliefs. Often, they led me to podcasts, Substacks, and threads on X that were conspiracy cults. Was I losing my sense of reality, or was our reality not reality at all?
I gave up listening to or watching the BBC several years ago and recently let my subscriptions to the Economist and the WSJ lapse. I didn’t need so much media telling me the same thing, most of which I increasingly questioned. But I thought that The FT, The Times, and Bloomberg would keep my feet securely in the mainstream, sufficient to see what other people thought or were being encouraged to think about our increasingly chaotic world of politics, economics, and finance.
However, with political alarms going off everywhere in the last few weeks, I confess that I have watched events with mixed emotions. Part of me thinks, well, I called that one right; the other part of me thinks, f**k, what happens now? This is really happening. Perhaps, I’m really a reluctant anarchist.
While a number of things caused me to realise that our times are more hyper-normal than I had ever imagined, it was THAT TV DEBATE where the mask of reality slipped. Once seen, it cannot be unseen. It was the moment when we saw behind the cameras of the Truman Show fantasy. The Cathedral of established politics and media was exposed on prime-time TV and the whole world was watching.
Consider the consequences now this Mark-9 gaslighting episode has been revealed. Those of us who noticed that Biden has been out to lunch for the last few months and prepared to say so were repeatedly told, hey, it’s just Joe; he mumbles and stumbles, and really, in private, he is as sharp as he has ever been.
With this sham now in plain sight, it legitimately raises serious questions from all those unusual people whose pet conspiracy theories have also been ridiculed. Where did COVID come from? What is the evidence for climate change? Who were Epstein and Maxwell trafficking underage girls to?
But it fundamentally lessens our trust in the State, its institutions, and democracy itself.
In their desperation to cling to power, the Biden team has opened the gate for Trump. Their use of lawfare helped the MAGA fundraising campaign, but it was largely contained within Trump’s existing base. However, the revelation in plain sight that the leader of the free world is incoherent, muddled, and confused, combined with continuing attempts to say there is nothing to see here, unravels everything.
Indeed, democratic incumbents are unravelling everywhere. Sunak, Macron, and now Biden are all toast. The only question is whether they will be slightly browned or turned to charcoal.
As ever, Matthew Syed has a solid understanding of the issues.
While pundits examine exit polls and consult focus groups, they miss the rot buried so deep in our system that it has become all but invisible. And — if you’ll forgive me for being candid on a momentous weekend — it has nothing to do with hopeless leaders, Russian bots, high taxes, low taxes or being members of the wrong trading bloc. The problem is western electorates. Us.
As the legendary economist Thomas Sowell put it, in 2012.
The fact that so many successful politicians are such shameless liars is not only a reflection on them, it is also a reflection on us. When the people want the impossible, only liars can satisfy them, and only in the short run. Among the biggest lies is the notion that the government can supply the people with things they want but cannot afford. Since the government gets its resources from the people, if the people as a whole cannot afford something, neither can the government.
For Syed the problem is excessive government debt constraining political action. And it is hard to disagree.
Let’s briefly look at what most people agree are the symptoms of political decay. Debt is rising: approaching 100 per cent of GDP in the UK, 115 per cent in France and 120 per cent in the US. These are highs previously reached at the end of the Second World War, when we had just financed a conflict, after which levels rapidly fell. Today they are set to rise — and rise (partly because of changing demography). The US Congressional Budget Office projects that the share of GDP used to service the federal debt will be twice what is spent on national security by 2041. The Office for Budget Responsibility foresees UK debt reaching 300 per cent by 2070. France — well, who knows what will happen if Marine Le Pen gets the chance to enact her deluded version of populism?
Macron has gambled his political future on raising the State pension age from 62 to 64 which both main opposition parties want to reverse. This is a sense of Gallic entitlement that Brits might just shrug at and say, well that’s the French for you. But all Western democracies have their own version of this French hill to die on. This is not a partisan issue, it transcends party. Each side has its own absolutist shopping list.
But, as Sowell went on to say,
There is, of course, the perennial fallacy that the government can simply raise taxes on “the rich” and use that additional revenue to pay for things that most people cannot afford. What is amazing is the implicit assumption that “the rich” are all such complete fools that they will do nothing to prevent their money from being taxed away. History shows otherwise.
This last point is where the UK is now: as the Labour Party prepares for government, private wealth portfolios are being tapped by families with children in private schools, and lump sums are being paid to school bursars. The more mobile are preparing to move abroad, and others will be making inheritance provisions. Tax accounting and financial planning advice will be at a premium.
But assuming these adjustments can be made relatively painlessly, the UK can yet become a paragon of stability and probity in a world that is anything but. We have had our Liz Truss event. Our economy grew more strongly in Q1 this year than previously thought (again). The Pound has been the most stable currency in the G7, and our inflation rate is declining faster than any other major country. It’s all relative, right?
As the global year of elections continues stay tuned for the second half. If things don’t work out here, I might emigrate to Argentina.
Jeremy
30/06/2024